The Star’s NFL predictions

 

 

The Star's NFL predictions
The Star's NFL predictions

 
 

What cracks me up about these "predictions" is that everyone of them has the Saints scoring less than a TD more against the Lions than the Ravens against the Chiefs and a couple of them actually has the Ravens scoring more than the Saints.

 

Are the Ravens that explosive of a team? Have the Saints lost explosiveness? Have the Lions improved that much? Have the Chiefs lost that much? I am convinced more and more everyday that these "experts" are really idiots and the Star is the worst newspaper for sports coverage in the USA. Really, I do not expect the Ravens to top 20 points even if they dominate and I dont expect the Saints to have less than 30 points even if they play poorly.

 
 

Go Chiefs!

How the Chiefs can beat the Ravens

In every game the underdog has a chance to set the tone and use advantages to win. It helps if the favorites make mistakes but is not necessary. Here is the game plan for the Chiefs to win.

1. Limit opportunities for the Ravens pass rush. The Chiefs are terrible at pass blocking, the Ravens are one of the best in the AFC at rushing the passer. So, 90% of their passes in this game should be either bootleg, shotgun, or 3 step drop. Screens and draws are also plusses here. Also any deep drop should be on first down or second and 5 or less.

2. Run the football effectively. If the Chiefs run the ball 30 or more times in this game it means they are in the game. LJ and Charles need to train and take their vitamins this week. (I will leave the saying prayers to whoever is playing QB)

3. Stop the run. The Ravens always rely on a good ground game.

4. Get pressure. Flacco is HYPE. He had a good running game and a good defense behind him last year. Pressure him into mistakes.

5. Out coach the other guy. Haley needs to limit his mistakes both as OC and as HC. There is a lot of opportunities for him to blow it. But if he does the right thing, the game is winable. It is also important for Clancy to make the right calls. We are out-talented on both sides of the ball. Good coaching isnt good enough. It will take excellent coaching to win.

Pollard Cut

Scotts Revenge for Brady


Josh Looney:  

Released...

CB Jackie Bates

TE Tom Crabree

DE Dion Gales

DE Bobby Greenwood

G Darryl Harris

WR Taurus Johnson

WR Ashley Lelie

DT Derek Lokey

S Bernard Pollard

S Ricky Price

LB Zach Thomas

RB Javarris Williams

WR Rodney Wright

Placed on IR...

G Colin Brown

Chiefs Outlook for 2009

Here is my optimistic outlook for this season.

 

Week	SUBJECT
1	Chiefs @ Ravens	Chiefs run the ball 45 times to keep QB out of hospital. Ravens win	0-1
2	Raiders @ Chiefs	Cassel is back Arrowhead is rocking but only because it is a double whammy-- Home Opener & Raiders week	1-1
3	Chiefs @ Eagles	A trip to Philly and no one can have a cheese steak on the Haley diet	1-2
4	Giants @ Chiefs	Lucky schedule break, Giants ready for some home cooking after 3 road games and slack off	2-2
5	Cowboys @ Chiefs	Good thing that the first Dallas v. Dallas game is in KC. Dustin would have had plenty of opportunities to hit the very pretty scoreboard against the Boys D in Dallas	2-3
6	Chiefs @ Redskins	By now the Skins have tried to trade for another QB another 5 or 6 times and the team has imploded. Hopefully we get some pass protection up the middle. Albert killed us in KC last year. Mmmm more specifically, he killed Croyle and Huard and started the Thigpen era.	3-3
7	Chargers @ Chiefs	Tough going back at Arrowhead, Chiefs go into the BYE with a loss.	3-4
9	Chiefs @ Jaguars	After the BYE the Chiefs are ready for a second half rally to the season. It starts in Florida. If only the season could end there..	4-4
10	Chiefs @ Raiders	I cant remember the last time the Chiefs lost in Oakland..	5-4
11	Steelers @ Chiefs	The Chiefs actually have fared well against defending SB Champs at Arrowhead even in bad years. Not this year	5-5
12	Chiefs @ Chargers	Chiefs win a close on in the sun	6-5
13	Broncos @ Chiefs	Chiefs always beat Denver in KC	7-5
14	Bills @ Chiefs	Revenge for last year? Bills hung 54 in Arrowhead. Not this time	8-5
15	Browns @ Chiefs	On a second half roll, the Chiefs roll the Browns	9-5
16	Chiefs @ Bengals	Chiefs looking to the playoffs stay hot	10-5
17	Chiefs @ Broncos	Oh INVECO… My nightmare… every year I wake up at the crack of dawn and get abused just to watch another heart-break. KC has never won in that stadium. God I hate that place. I only wish they had thought out the whole bathroom thing.. Lines miles long the whole game. Last Chiefs win in Denver? Well, Bill Clinton was president. Nobody outside Chicago knew who Barack Obama is. And Gunther Cunningham has been fired twice, yes That's how long it has been. Not getting my hopes up this year. Chiefs still win the west

Been A Long Time

Been caught up writing my Manifesto. Spending the beginning of the season here in hell.

Chiefs select Mr. Irrelevant

Chiefs select a Kicker to end the draft.

Chiefs Select Jake O'Connell

Looks like a blocking TE although his pro day 40 time was good for a TE (4.66)

Kansas City Chiefs Select Javarris Williams

A RB at this spot. Don't know this player and information on him is slim.

Leroy Hill

According to the Seattle Times the Seahawks have removed Leroy Hill's franchise tag. That leaves him as an UFA. I like him as a player, however am concerned about his off field issues. Being arrested passed out behind the wheel is beyond irresponsible. He also had some weed in the car with him which isn't good.

Almost home..

The Chiefs have two picks left and I am hoping we are very active in UDFA. There are kids that will be there that can help this team.

Kansas City Chiefs select Quinten Lawrence

This will be an attempt at a deep threat. Might have been higher but suffered an ankle injury in college. McNeese State only had 10 teams show up at their pro day. Unknown if the Chiefs were one of those teams. He ran 4.42 at the pro day but still could not jump due to the injury. Intriguing pick at this point. He averaged almost 20 YPR in college so I am interested.

ESPN On the Raiders Draft

Interesting interview with Cable. When asked about the offensive philosophy he said

"We are going to run the ball and throw it over your head".

I hope Cable really doesn't believe this and is just saying things to keep himself employed. That system hasn't worked in the entire time I have watched football. Pass rushing has gotten to the point to where the QB doesn't have time for that. The only time the Raiders have been successful was in running the West Coast offense.

Love Chris Carter's comments on Darrius Heyward-Bey:

"Honorable Mention in the ACC." "Went ACC games without catches." "How does this help the QB?"

Priceless.

Chiefs draft Colin Brown

Finally the Chiefs go O-Line. Don't know too much about him. 6'6 335 and since Mizzou runs a spread he should be athletic. Played RT in college which is what the Chiefs need. Duke Robinson is still available. I thought he would be the second OG off the board. Is there some secret information out on him that isnt available to anyone but the teams? He has been listed as the top OG available for awhile on ESPN and others have gone off the board.

Chiefs select CB Donald Washington

Interesting selection. The Chiefs need a Nickel/Dime back but is that the biggest need that could be filled at this point in the Draft?

OGs are going off the board quickly

I don't think Duke will be there when the Chiefs make their 4^th round pick. Must be happy with the OGs we got.

Did Marvin Lewis just offer Herm a job?

Everyone laughed but Herm and then Herm told Marvin he is "doing great don't listen to us.". Interesting.

The three biggest head-scratchers of the first round

I love this article. A must read.

Raiders draft Matt Shaughnessy

First Oakland pick that makes any sense. At least to anyone outside of Al Davis's skull. This kid has Jared Allen type skills.

Chiefs draft Alex Mcgee

Interesting pick. We might be looking at the Chiefs starting Des in Mcgee and Jackson.

Chiefs targets for day 2 of 2009 NFL Draft

Michael Johnson - DE

Duke Robinson - OG

Rashad Johnson - S

Shawn Nelson - TE

Shonn Greene - RB

Tyronne Green - OG

Terrance Taylor - DT

Brandon Tate - WR

Johnny Knox - WR

Brandon Walker - OG

Rhett Bomar – QB

TJ Lang – OT

Jason Watkins – OT

Chase Patton - QB

 

AFC West 1st day draft recap

Bad day for the West. At least the Chiefs did better than the other teams. Denver has used all of its picks acquired from the Bears to finish out the Cutler trade. Chicago will pick 140^th overall to finish up that trade. IMO Da Bears stole Cutler. Denver wasted those picks and I'm lovin' it.

• Chiefs
  
  • #3 overall – Tyson Jackson. Fits with the team, could have traded down and got him. Will be overpaid as a five technique DE
    
• Chargers
  
  • #16 overall – Larry English. Good fit for the team, maybe Merriman is not healthy?
    
• Raiders
  
  • #7 overall - Darrius Heyward-Bey. Are you kidding me? The fastest WR so not a surprise the Raiders picked him up but surprised he was picked here.
    
  • #47 overall – Mike Mitchell. I guess if you want a safety you get one in the second in this draft. I don't think this is the right guy though…What's his 40 time? Unknown, not invited to the combine. Hits like a ton of bricks on a highlight film so I guess that's all the Raiders need is a nice highlight file. See Brown, Larry…
    
• Donks
  
  • #12 overall - Knowshon Moreno. Nice player, fits the offense. Not even close to a need in Denver. Maybe Josh is the RB version of Gruden.
    
  • #18 overall – (acquired in Cutler trade) Robert Ayers. Don't see how he fits in their D.
    
  • #37 overall - (used 1^st rounder acquired in Cutler trade) Alphonso Smith. Nice player. Will replace departed Dre Bly. Not an upgrade over Bly IMO.
    
  • #48 overall - Darcel McBath. Another safety reach due to lack of depth. I guess Denver's best pick of the day and that is not a complement.
    
  • #64 overall – Richard Quinn (Used 3^rd rounder acquired in Cutler trade)

NFL Network big head

When they did the big head thing. Marshall Faulk looked just like Barry Bonds does normally(After Steroids).

Will the Chiefs Trade back into the 2nd round?

Rey Maualuga is still available and is a steal at this point.

No contract for Cassel

Colts on the Clock

Best fit for Dorsey. I hope we can move him.

The Coach on the Chiefs 1st round pick

Oher?

Oher still is undrafted. He is my top RT on the board. Can we trade Dorsey and get Oher?

Dorsey

When do we trade Dorsey? It looks like Maclin is going to Philly and the Browns have traded down again. I was hoping a Maclin for Dorsey deal will work when he started slipping.

Donks get it wrong again!

I don't know what they are doing but am glad they did. Ayers just doesn't fit.

Browns trade down again

Damn I am jealous.

SD got it right

Hard not to with the talent level they have. English is a great fit for them and reduces the risk of Merriman not being 100%.

Donks screw it up too!

I like the guy they picked and he fits in Josh's offense but they signed 2 of him as free agents. They now have 7 or 8 RBs on the depth chart. Insane!

Donks on the Clock

Donks have to pick Orakpo IMO. Best 3-4 guy on the board.

Green Bay is on the Clock

I think that B.J Raji is the obvious choice.

The Raiders draft the fastest WR not the best

No surprise, coming from Al Davis. Good for the Chiefs.

I like the player hate the pick

A 3-4 DE is not worth what a 4-3 DE is worth and Jackson will get a bigger contract than Jared Allen received from the Vikes last year.

The Chiefs have picked…

The Chiefs have drafted Jackson. I like the pick just not at #3.

The Chiefs are on the Clock!!!!!

The Rams have selected Jason Smith from Baylor. Great pick for them. I still think the Chiefs need to pick Crabtree or trade down.

The Rams are on the Clock…..

10 mins until the Chiefs pick…

The Draft has started!

The Lions are on the clock officially and draft well you already know…..

Draft day setup

I am prepared for the Draft with draft, beer that is.

Check out my birthday present from my wife (The Keg-orator), and my mom (The tap handle).

Jets trying to move up to #2

According to NFL Network pre-draft coverage. Bad news for the Chiefs. If Sanchez is off the board will be hard for the Chiefs to trade down. Hopefully it doesn't work out with the Jets and Rams. Better trade for the Chiefs…

Cassel signed 6 years $36 million guaranteed

According to NFL Network pre-draft coverage. Less guaranteed than Stafford.

What I think the Chiefs will do

 

Trade down from #3 into the 6-10 range and pick DE Jackson, LB Curry, or WR Crabtree. I will be blogging the draft at http://ddsuperblog.blogspot.com/

My Dream Scenario

All of this clearly will not happen but this would make my day. Here are the moves….

 

• Trade Dorsey to Atlanta for their #1 and their DE if we go to the 3-4
  
• Trade #3 overall to Redskins for #13, Jason Campbell and another pick this year or next.
  

1. We now have #13 and #24
   

 Trade Cassel to Denver for #12

1. Now have #12 and #13 and #24
   

 Trade #13 to Arizona for Boldin

 Trade #12 down and pick up a second round pick

 Draft the best Tackle available

 Trade Waters for a second round pick

 Use the 2 second round picks to draft OGs

• We end up with 2 OGs, our #2 WR, a 3-4 DE, and Campbell. That would make a great first day of the draft.

Sad day for Chiefs fans...Sadder day for Tony G

As you have no doubt already heard Tony G has been traded to Atlanta. While this is disappointing, Tony no doubt wanted out and did not commit to us no matter what the politics say. I am glad it is the Falcons and not the Giants as Tony would head to Arrowhead as the enemy this year if that was the case. Anyways, I predict KC in the Playoffs and ATL on the outside looking in. That would no doubt make Tony even more frustrated.

Position Value Chart

I find that positions have value just as draft picks do. The tiers listed show: Tier 1 is multiple pro-bowl type evaluation, Tier 2 is a solid starter, and Tier 3 is just below solid starter. I know pro teams look at guys in a lot more tiers but this is just how I look at it. It helps to match up with a draft chart when determining if someone is a reach or not.

	QB	LT	RB	WR	DE	OLB
Tier 1	3000	2800	2600	2575	2550	2500
Tier 2	1600	1300	1100	780	800	740
Tier 3	520	470	450	400	92	66
	MLB	CB	S	3-4 DE	NT	DT
Tier 1	1610	1600	1590	1550	1525	1500
Tier 2	950	900	850	520	600	550
Tier 3	100	92	76	38	33	25
	TE	RT	OG	KR	C	FB	K	P
Tier 1	1460	1250	850	700	590	250	170	33
Tier 2	580	530	380	131	240	24	3	3
Tier 3	28	39	37	14	27	4	0	0

Why Not Curry at #3? Part II

Why Not Curry at #3?

I have had a lot of questioned emailed to me as to why not Curry at #3. Here is my response.

The reason I consider drafting Curry at #3 non sense is for a variety of reasons. I do think Curry will be a fine player but not a top 5 pick. I will admit I love the way he plays and have seen interviews with him and he seems like a great kid. His comments about wanting the Lions to pick him so much that he would take less money than last year's #1 are first class (and supposedly already has a deal in place in case they can't sign the QB they want). If we traded down to say 7 or 8, then I would see Curry as an option. Here is my list of what a top 5 pick should be in order:

1. Franchise QB (I don't think there is a sure fire one in this draft, I like Sanchez and Freeman but wish they had spent another year in school for seasoning).
2. Your rock at LT (We already have this)
3. Dangerous pass rusher (Think of Carl's first draft in 1989. I dont think there is one worthy in this draft. Curry may be this but hasnt proved it for whatever reason).
4. Offensive weapon (A RB or WR who is going to set a team up for big plays. Crabtree is the only guy here I feel fits that bill).

If a guy is not one of those 4 things, he is not enough value for top 5 let alone value considering what you pay top 5. I believe Crabtree is the only player in this draft that fits these roles outside of LTs which is not needed in KC. So IMO, it is Crabtree or trade down.

Lots of good stuff from the Coach!

Opportunities abound for 2009 Chiefs!

I see this schedule as a big opportunity for the Chiefs to win the AFC West. I will break it down fully in the coming months but the biggest complaint I have heard thus far is the 4 game stretch against the NFC East. I like it for a few reasons. One is that it is best to get those tough out of conference games out of the way early. The other reason is the Giants are on the end of a 3 game road march into Arrowhead. I think the Giants will be weak wanting to get back to the Big Apple. The Cowboys will be looking towards their BYE week the following week.

 

Another opportunity is that the Chiefs will be prepared for the AFC West opponents. Only home games against the Raiders and Chargers before the BYE week. No primetime games are bad for fans but good for coaches. The Chiefs have 13 games that are 1PM Sunday starts (A Coaches dream) and the other 3 games are 415 Sunday starts. The 10 games starting at week 7 is what really counts. All the tie break scenarios really matter when looking at that part of the season.

I cannot wait until September 13^th!!!!!

Chiefs Schedule released – NO Primetime again!

Hope you out-of-towners like me have the Sunday Ticket

 

Wk	Date	Matchup	TV	Time
1	Sun, Sept. 13	at Baltimore Ravens	CBS	1 p.m.
2	Sun, Sept. 20	vs. Oakland Raiders	CBS	1 p.m.
3	Sun, Sept. 27	at Philadelphia Eagles	CBS	1 p.m.
4	Sun, Oct. 4	vs. New York Giants	FOX	1 p.m.
5	Sun, Oct. 11	vs. Dallas Cowboys	FOX	1 p.m.
6	Sun, Oct. 18	at Washington Redskins	CBS	1 p.m.
7	Sun, Oct. 25	vs. San Diego Chargers	CBS	1 p.m.
8	Bye
9	Sun, Nov. 8	at Jacksonville Jaguars	CBS	1 p.m.
10	Sun, Nov. 15	at Oakland Raiders	CBS	4:05 p.m.
11	Sun, Nov. 22	vs. Pittsburgh Steelers	CBS	1 p.m.
12	Sun, Nov. 29	at San Diego Chargers	CBS	4:05 p.m.
13	Sun, Dec. 6	vs. Denver Broncos	CBS	1 p.m.
14	Sun, Dec. 13	vs. Buffalo Bills	CBS	1 p.m.
15	Sun, Dec. 20	vs. Cleveland Browns	CBS	1 p.m.
16	Sun, Dec. 27	at Cincinnati Bengals	CBS	1 p.m.
17	Sun, Jan. 3	at Denver Broncos	CBS	4:15 p.m.

Why Not Curry at #3?

I have had a lot of questioned emailed to me as to why not Curry at #3. Here is my response.

The reason I consider drafting Curry at #3 non sense is for a variety of reasons. I do think Curry will be a fine player but not a top 5 pick. If we traded down to say 7 or 8, then I would see Curry as an option. Here is my list of what a top 5 pick should be in order:

1. Franchise QB (I don't think there is a sure fire one in this draft, I like Sanchez and Freeman but wish they had spent another year in school for seasoning).
2. Your rock at LT (We already have this)
3. Dangerous pass rusher (Think of Carl's first draft in 1989. I dont think there is one worthy in this draft. Curry may be this but hasnt proved it for whatever reason).
4. Offensive weapon (A RB or WR who is going to set a team up for big plays. Crabtree is the only guy here I feel fits that bill).

If a guy is not one of those 4 things, he is not enough value for top 5 let alone value considering what you pay top 5. I believe Crabtree is the only player in this draft that fits these roles outside of LTs which is not needed in KC. So IMO, it is Crabtree or trade down.

Closed Polls

Big wins for Cassel trade was good for the Chiefs and Cassel being the Chiefs QB on opening day. All that despite the fact that Cassel got a late start. Thanks all for voting!

Roster moves

 

Of course I draw up this big chart, post it and then the Chiefs make some big moves. I will take these one by one.

Signing Goff – Great move as a stopgap at RG.

Signing Zack Thomas – Another great stopgap. Hopefully this means I can quit hearing the Aaron Curry nonsense.

Waiving Franklin – Ho-Hum… Does anyone care? I find it interesting they let him go at this point but was worthless last year.

 

Now those are the official moves. There are also rumors that LJ is good as gone and that the Falcons are offering a 2^nd rounder for Tony G. I think either of those moves would be terrible for the Chiefs. There is not one reason to release LJ. Not one worth the time it takes to type it up. Tony G for a second rounder? That is acceptable and I am sure the King would have pulled the trigger last year. 2009 is a different season and the moves made by Pioli have screamed "I am trying to win the fricken division". Bringing in players like Goff, Vrabel, and Thomas isn't the kind of moves you make when you are playing for next year. Goff is the only one with a better than 25% chance of being on the team in 2010. With Carl at the helm, he would have signed these guys to longer contracts that would have hurt the cap for years. These deals are to guys that are stopgaps and are stopgap deals. They are not terrible deals. I am hoping that the Chiefs look at another stopgap in Thomas's sister's husband. That will allow the draft to play out however it needs to play out. There will not be a terrible hole to fill and the Chiefs can draft whatever player is on their board or trade down.

Chiefs needs for 2009 and beyond...

The chart above shows where I feel the Chiefs are solid (Black), where an upgrade is needed (Red), where the player is older and will need replaced soon (Blue) and guys that are really in a year where they will have to prove something (Green). Click the picture to enlarge. The positions listed are ones that I feel are key positions and will be on the field quite a bit. There are 31 positions on this key position list and 7 need replaced badly.

I actually agreed with Herm Edwards when he said the Chiefs are 80% there. The Chiefs have pretty good depth, but are lacking in areas that are important. In key positions, there is still a 22.5% need for replacement. It will be an important 2009 season for those in listed in green. Not only for them but for us the fans and the team as well. The key for the draft, is getting guys to fill those red boxes. The fewer boxes available, the better the team will be. I believe the Chiefs can win the AFC West this year and once in a single elimination playoff tournment, any team can win on any given Sunday.

Peter King on the Cutler trade....

I was reading Peter King's article on the trade and there were some things that blew me away.

But as the deal went down, McDaniels, who watched every offensive snap of more than 10 Bears games with Orton playing, got more and more impressed with Orton's arm, his decision-making and his ability to extend plays when the pocket broke down.

Really? Impressed with Orton? Are you kidding me?

In the end, this trade happened so quickly because, first and foremost, the owner of the Broncos felt dissed.

Oh...Did wittle billionaire get HIS feelings hurt? I have heard people talk about this like it was their job and they didnt return their bosses calls and what would happen...Well if my boss tried to call me during my time off, I would call him back if I felt like it. End of story, I am not getting paid, I am not obligated to call back. Jay didnt get the paycheck portion until July.