Why Not Curry at #3?

I have had a lot of questioned emailed to me as to why not Curry at #3. Here is my response.

The reason I consider drafting Curry at #3 non sense is for a variety of reasons. I do think Curry will be a fine player but not a top 5 pick. If we traded down to say 7 or 8, then I would see Curry as an option. Here is my list of what a top 5 pick should be in order:

1. Franchise QB (I don't think there is a sure fire one in this draft, I like Sanchez and Freeman but wish they had spent another year in school for seasoning).
2. Your rock at LT (We already have this)
3. Dangerous pass rusher (Think of Carl's first draft in 1989. I dont think there is one worthy in this draft. Curry may be this but hasnt proved it for whatever reason).
4. Offensive weapon (A RB or WR who is going to set a team up for big plays. Crabtree is the only guy here I feel fits that bill).

If a guy is not one of those 4 things, he is not enough value for top 5 let alone value considering what you pay top 5. I believe Crabtree is the only player in this draft that fits these roles outside of LTs which is not needed in KC. So IMO, it is Crabtree or trade down.

Chiefs needs for 2009 and beyond...

The chart above shows where I feel the Chiefs are solid (Black), where an upgrade is needed (Red), where the player is older and will need replaced soon (Blue) and guys that are really in a year where they will have to prove something (Green). Click the picture to enlarge. The positions listed are ones that I feel are key positions and will be on the field quite a bit. There are 31 positions on this key position list and 7 need replaced badly.

I actually agreed with Herm Edwards when he said the Chiefs are 80% there. The Chiefs have pretty good depth, but are lacking in areas that are important. In key positions, there is still a 22.5% need for replacement. It will be an important 2009 season for those in listed in green. Not only for them but for us the fans and the team as well. The key for the draft, is getting guys to fill those red boxes. The fewer boxes available, the better the team will be. I believe the Chiefs can win the AFC West this year and once in a single elimination playoff tournment, any team can win on any given Sunday.

What should the Chiefs do with all that Cap space?

According to ESPN, the Chiefs are still sitting on approximately $36 million. How can the Chiefs spend that money wisely? I believe that is an easy answer and can set the Chiefs up in good shape long term. Here is where that money should go.

1. The rookie cap should be around $9 million. That is based on the 2008 rookie cap numbers. According to ESPN, the Chiefs had $8.2 million and change to pay their 12 draft picks. That number included two top half of the first round picks. The Chiefs have the number 3 pick and nothing until the third round. What this means is that the Chiefs shouldn’t have the highest number this season but with the large cap increase, I am guessing the rookie cap with jump up a bit. $27 million left.

2. Budget $8 million for veteran free agents or trades. There can’t be that much money left to spend. $19 million left.

3. Pay DJ. Don’t let him leave next year. Use signing bonuses and roster bonuses wisely so the cap money isn’t wasted over the years. Let him count about $6.5 million for 2009. He is scheduled to make $1.5 million this year. $12.5 million left.

4. Get a long term contract for our new QB. He is already costing $14.65 million against the cap so let’s give him a $21 million dollar roster bonus set up for the day after so it all counts this season. Throw in a million dollar salary for 2009 and that leaves $5.15 million left over for cap hits for guys we cut as well as mid-season pickups. The Chiefs have locked up their best defensive player and their new franchise QB.

Offseason Wish List revisited

Surprisingly, the Chiefs did nothing at all in free agency. The Chiefs did pull one big move in trading for Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for only a 2nd round pick. While I was not incredibly impressed with Cassel given the amount of talent around him, there is a reason Pioli is the General Manager and I am not. So here is to hoping he has it right because if we can get a frachise QB for a second round pick with a locker room leader as a throw-in that is a steal. I also think with the QBs we have now, there is no reason to spend a draft pick on one. Croyle, Gray, and Martin are all there to compete for the #3 spot assuming that Cassel is #1 and Thigpen is #2. Coach Haley has told us that there will be a competition for the #1 slot but I am doubtful that the Chiefs are going to have an eight figure salary backup that was traded for a second round pick.

I can only assume that no moves toward 3-4 defensive lineman mean that as a base defense in 2009 the Chiefs will employ a 4-3 with a situational 3-4 alignment. I would find it hard to believe that the Chiefs would plan on looking for two starting lineman out of the draft. Alfonso Boone is the only player on the Chiefs payroll that can play any of the 3-4 line positions. He could play an end position in a 3-4. Dorsey would have no position what so ever in a 3-4. Hali could probably be used as an OLB but that would be quite the change and I don't know that it would be productive although I could see a situation where the Chiefs could line up Hali and Vrabel as OLBs and Johnson and Curry as ILBs. Then your defensive line looks Boone and a second or third-tier 3-4 defensive end and a second or third-tier nose tackle. I don't think that would be productive. I think in the next three to four year the Chiefs will be running a 3-4 base, but doing that this season would prove to be a disaster. Let's see if Dorsey can live up to his "baby Sapp" nickname and at the very least trade him for a first round pick next year if the 3-4 is desired that bad.


The Draft

Obviously what moves are made in free agency will dictate what happens in the draft. I will keep this post fluid based on what happens.

1. I prefer to trade down from the #3 spot. With Crabtree measuring up at 6’1 3/8, I can accept him. If the Kansas City Chiefs stay at #3, Crabtree has to be the guy. I think Curry will be a fine player, but a top 5 guy should make a huge impact and I look at Curry and see another DJ. Not a bad guy to look at in the teens but I just don’t see the impact to be a top 5 guy. With Crabtree injured, it will be harder to trade out of that spot. We can trade down once and get Maclin which will add a deep threat and a returner. But being a wish list, I would trade down to the mid to late teens and select the RT of the future and my selection will be Michael Oher (T).

2. In my first round trade downs, I have acquired a second round pick to give me a second round pick back. I will use that pick to select Duke Robinson (G). Duke is the top guard prospect and will slide into the right guard position immediately, and eventually maybe replace Waters who I can only assume the Chiefs are not trading as of yet.

3. In my trade downs, I have a pair of 3rd round picks. Eric Wood (C ) based on grades should be available but other centers Luigs, Unger, or Mack would be the guy if available. The second 3rd round pick Gerald McRath (OLB).

4. With my 4th round pick I select Terrance Taylor (DT). Taylor is big enough to play nose in situational 3-4 looks and eat blocks in a 4-3 on running downs. I would really like him next to Dorsey in a couple years. I don't think he is ready to start week one but still could play a valuable role in the defensive line rotation.

5. To improve on the a pass rush Stryker Sulak (DE). He might have a low ceiling but can be used as a situational pass rusher and in the 5th round, if you can improve a deficiency you are not doing too bad.

6. With my 6th round pick I select Johnny Knox (WR). Knox had a great combine and could be a deep threat and compete as a kick returner.

7. With my 7th round and final selection in the 2009 NFL Draft I select Brandon Walker (G)

Undrafted FA

I would bring in as many of these guys as I can. Not to speculate on certain players draft status, I would say that if Chase Daniel is still there I would bring him in and see if he can be an NFL QB in the spread.

Analyzing the Cassel to the Chiefs trade

With all the word going around about the Chiefs and New England trade for Matt Cassel, there are lots of opinions flying around that don't really explain anything. I am going to admit that I am not happy with this deal. I will get to my explanation of that after I explain that the Chiefs got a good deal if they believe Cassel is a potential franchise QB. Lets look at what a couple of experts said January 12, 2009 on ESPN.Com. Keep in mind Floyd Reese was a candidate for the Chiefs GM position, and replaced Pioli in NE as the top personnel man in NE.

"It would have to be multiple choices and very high choices to get Cassel," ESPN analyst and former Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "Two first-rounders, or a one and a two and a three ... It'll be something very, very expensive."

Michael Lombardi, who last week was the first to report the Patriots would put the franchise tag on Cassel, said the starting price should be the draft choices the San Diego Chargers received for Eli

At the 2004 draft, the New York Giants acquired Manning's rights for Philip Rivers' rights along with a third-round pick that year and their first- and fifth-round picks in 2005.

"Whatever the Giants gave up for Eli has to be the market," Lombardi said. "It's got to be a first-rounder, and not the 22nd or 24th pick in the draft. It has to be a substantial one and one that keeps on giving."

It sounds like the experts believe that Cassel is worth at a minimum a top 15 first round pick and a third round pick. Getting Vrabel and Cassel for a high second round pick is a pretty sweet deal. The Chiefs traded for a (presumed) starting QB for the same price we paid for Surtain. That is a smoking deal if Cassel is the real deal.

Now was it the right deal for the Chiefs? I do not believe so. The reason is this, with that offensive line and those skill position players the Pats were able to set league records on offense in 2007. In 2008 with the only major change on offense QB,the Pats were 5th in total offense and 8th in total points. Now in KC, we can dream about a top 10 offense but we can also dream about having that good of an offensive line and Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. Bowe is pretty good but is not the same level of a Moss that wants to play. Tony G is an awesome TE but it is much easier to focus attention to a TE and shut him down without great WRs. The biggest difference between what Cassel had and the Chiefs had is an offensive line. I cannot compare Thigpen and Cassel's stats fairly because of that difference. There is no objective way to compare the two QBs. It is all subjective.

What Thigpen did last year was amazing to me. He had no snaps and was not prepared to take the job. He made it work and managed to give the Chief's offense some life. Tyler Thigpen took a jalopy and drove it home. Matt Cassel proved he could take a finely tuned sports car and not wreck it too bad. Keep in mind the Pats were 16-0 with the other guy. With Cassel and the easiest schedule in football, the Pats were 11-5 and not even a playoff team. I am not sold on Cassel in the least bit.

In conclusion, the deal is done and I am rooting for the best. We have a lot of cap money to blow and if done right Cassel's contract will not hurt long term. Without that second round pick, it will be much harder to rebuild the right side of the offensive line.

Chiefs Offseason Wish List Updated

I have been traveling to the most god awful region of the world and downloaded some research information to know what I was rooting for in free agency and the draft a little better. I also watched quite a bit of the combine and was impressed with several of my guys. I wasn’t greatly impressed by Sanchez in the throwing drills but he showed the ability to make the throws and apparently wowed in his interviews. I guess I wouldn’t be heartbroken if the Kansas City Chiefs drafted him at #3 in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Also, I guess I was a little bit harsh on Mr. Crabtree. I saw a few interviews with him and he seems like a good kid that is receiving some really bad advice right now. He needs to get his surgery done, over with and live with not having run a 40. I was also mistaken with his height apparently, he measured up to 6’1 3/8. In a game where tenths of seconds in a 40 yard dash determine whether or not one is a deep threat, and inch and three-eighths is a huge difference. If we stay at number 3, Crabtree is the only impact player worth that selection.

Free Agency

1. Sign Ray Lewis. I am very doubtful we will get this done. It sounds like Ray will end up with the Cowboys or the Jets. I still think the Chiefs D needs a leader and this is the guy that will do it. Another option here is Vilma.

2. Jason Brown (C, Bal). Dude is big, young, and good. I had always assumed that the Ravens would keep him but it appears that he is looking for more money than they want to pay. There are reports he is going to St. Louis for a visit. The Chiefs need to bring him west and keep him in Missouri.

3. We need D line help. There isn’t a superstar out there that I feel comfortable with. Antonio Smith I guess played well enough in the playoffs to cash in but is he really the man? Peppers got the tag and wants to play in a 3-4. That doesn’t work. Haynesworth is talking about 100 million contract. The money he is looking at is far too much for a DT which is a position in which players are more likely to get injured. A low cost temporary fix like Bert Berry might be a place to look.

4. Stacy Andrews might just be the Chiefs answer at RT. He was the Cincinnati Bengals franchise player last year and blew out his knee. The Chiefs have had luck with bringing in a talented tackle coming off a knee injury. Offensive linemen don't lose anything after a knee injury.

5. We need a nickle back after releasing Pat Surtain. Drayton Florence and Dre' Bly are available and should come cheap.

The Draft

Obviously what moves are made in free agency will dictate what happens in the draft. I will keep this post fluid based on what happens.

1. I prefer to trade down from the #3 spot. With Crabtree measuring up at 6’1 3/8, I can accept him. If the Kansas City Chiefs stay at #3, Crabtree has to be the guy. I think Curry will be a fine player, but a top 5 guy should make a huge impact and I look at Curry and see another DJ. Not a bad guy to look at in the teens but I just don’t see the impact to be a top 5 guy. With Crabtree injured, it will be harder to trade out of that spot. We can trade down once and get Maclin which will add a deep threat and a returner. But being a wish list, I would trade down to the mid to late teens and select the RT of the future and my selection will be Michael Oher (T).

2. In my first round trade downs, I have acquired a second round pick to give me a pair in the round. I will use those picks to select Duke Robinson (G) and Michael Johnson (DE).

3. I also have a pair of 3rd round picks. Eric Wood (C ) based on grades should be available but other centers Luigs, Unger, or Mack would be the guy if available. The second 3rd round pick Gerald McRath (OLB).

4. With my 4th round pick I select Terrance Taylor (DT).

5. In my wish list, we are working with a spread base so with my 5th round pick, I select Graham Harrell (QB).

6. With my 6th round pick I select Tiquan Underwood (WR).

7. With my 7th round and final selection in the 2009 NFL Draft I select Brandon Walker (G)

Undrafted FA

I would bring in as many of these guys as I can. Not to speculate on certain players draft status, I would say that if Chase Daniel is still there I would bring him in and see if he can be an NFL QB in the spread.

What will these moves do for the Chiefs?

1. Solidify the Chiefs offensive line for years to come. I could see opening day lineup for ’09 from left to right as Albert, Waters, Wood, Robinson, Oher. With Walker maybe groom able to replace Waters in a few years, 4 out of the 5 starting O lineman would be under 25 and this is a crew that could stay together for a decade.

2. Unfortunately, there isn’t an impact defensive player here. Unless we get Ray Lewis, the D will still not have a leader. I think Johnson will pay dividends in 2010 on D. McRath probably will not be starter material in his rookie year and Taylor probably won’t either. In the long term, I think Taylor next to Dorsey will be a force in the middle of the D line.