Saturday, February 28, 2009

Analyzing the Cassel to the Chiefs trade

With all the word going around about the Chiefs and New England trade for Matt Cassel, there are lots of opinions flying around that don't really explain anything. I am going to admit that I am not happy with this deal. I will get to my explanation of that after I explain that the Chiefs got a good deal if they believe Cassel is a potential franchise QB. Lets look at what a couple of experts said January 12, 2009 on ESPN.Com. Keep in mind Floyd Reese was a candidate for the Chiefs GM position, and replaced Pioli in NE as the top personnel man in NE.

"It would have to be multiple choices and very high choices to get Cassel," ESPN analyst and former Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "Two first-rounders, or a one and a two and a three ... It'll be something very, very expensive."

Michael Lombardi, who last week was the first to report the Patriots would put the franchise tag on Cassel, said the starting price should be the draft choices the San Diego Chargers received for Eli

At the 2004 draft, the New York Giants acquired Manning's rights for Philip Rivers' rights along with a third-round pick that year and their first- and fifth-round picks in 2005.

"Whatever the Giants gave up for Eli has to be the market," Lombardi said. "It's got to be a first-rounder, and not the 22nd or 24th pick in the draft. It has to be a substantial one and one that keeps on giving."

It sounds like the experts believe that Cassel is worth at a minimum a top 15 first round pick and a third round pick. Getting Vrabel and Cassel for a high second round pick is a pretty sweet deal. The Chiefs traded for a (presumed) starting QB for the same price we paid for Surtain. That is a smoking deal if Cassel is the real deal.

Now was it the right deal for the Chiefs? I do not believe so. The reason is this, with that offensive line and those skill position players the Pats were able to set league records on offense in 2007. In 2008 with the only major change on offense QB,the Pats were 5th in total offense and 8th in total points. Now in KC, we can dream about a top 10 offense but we can also dream about having that good of an offensive line and Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. Bowe is pretty good but is not the same level of a Moss that wants to play. Tony G is an awesome TE but it is much easier to focus attention to a TE and shut him down without great WRs. The biggest difference between what Cassel had and the Chiefs had is an offensive line. I cannot compare Thigpen and Cassel's stats fairly because of that difference. There is no objective way to compare the two QBs. It is all subjective.

What Thigpen did last year was amazing to me. He had no snaps and was not prepared to take the job. He made it work and managed to give the Chief's offense some life. Tyler Thigpen took a jalopy and drove it home. Matt Cassel proved he could take a finely tuned sports car and not wreck it too bad. Keep in mind the Pats were 16-0 with the other guy. With Cassel and the easiest schedule in football, the Pats were 11-5 and not even a playoff team. I am not sold on Cassel in the least bit.

In conclusion, the deal is done and I am rooting for the best. We have a lot of cap money to blow and if done right Cassel's contract will not hurt long term. Without that second round pick, it will be much harder to rebuild the right side of the offensive line.

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